Wednesday, June 20, 2012

US OLYMPIC TEAM DISTANCE PREVIEW & PREDICTIONS

With the United States Olympic Trials for Track & Field less than 24 hours away, elite distance runners and trackies from all around the world focus their sights on Hayward Field in Eugene, Oregon. Tracktown 2012 will see dozens of distance runners duke it out for the privilege to be one of three Americans per event to represent the United States in London next month.

Every year there are superstars and surprises. This year will be no different. From Galen Rupp and Shalane Flanagan to Chris Derrick and Deb Maier, we provide you with our US Olympic Trials forecast. Hate it or love it, here's what you have to look forward to:

Women’s 1500m
Best Team: Morgan Uceny, Jenny Simpson, Anna Pierce
Keeping It Competitive: Alice Schmidt, Shannon Rowbury, Gabriele Anderson, Katherine Mackey
Dark Horse Favorite: Phoebe Wright
New York Runners: Grace (NJ/NY), Charnigo (NJ/NY), Schappert (NYAC)
The women's 1500m race looks to be one of the most competitive races of the Trials. More than a dozen ladies will toe the line in Eugene with high hopes of making the team. Uceny is our favorite to win this event at the Trials and make her first team, while both Simpson and Pierce--both 3000m steeplechase Olympians in Beijing 2008--look to round out the remaining 2 Olympic team spots. Schmidt and Rowbury will keep things very close, and the recent success of Gabriele Anderson suggests she is peaking at the right time. Keep an eye out for 800m specialist Phoebe Wright, who has run a 1500m time within striking distance of the American lead.

Men’s 1500m
Best Team: Leo Manzano, Russell Brown, Andrew Wheating
Keeping It Competitive: Matt Centrowitz, Robby Andrews, David Torrence, Will Leer, Jordan McNamara, Kyle Merber, Garrett Heath, Jack Bolas, A.J. Acosta
Dark Horse Favorite: Jeff See
New York Runners: Boylan-Pett (NJ/NY), Gagnon (NJ/NY), Gonzalez (NJ/NY), Van Ingen (SUNY Binghamton)
From the outset, this looks like the most competitive race of the entire Trials. 20 runners are within legitimate striking distance of American leader Leo Manzano. For our money, Manzano pulls this one out in the end to make his second Olympic Team--he ran this event in Beijing four years ago, failing to make the final. Russell Brown has been too strong to ignore, and has proved that he belongs on this Olympic Team. The wildcard here is Andrew Wheating, who has yet to run to his full potential in this event after making the US Olympic Team in 2008 at the 800m distance. With a friendly crowd cheering him on, Wheating has the potential to win this event and will round out the third spot on the team.
Just take a look at the guys who won't make this team, though: Centro? Andrews? Torrence? Leer? Merber? Jeff See is our dark horse who has run impressive times lately, but will we see a 10-man sprint to the line, or a dive to the finish a la 2008?
If you only watch one event at the Olympic Trials this year, make it the Men's 1500m Final.

Women’s 5000m
Best Team: Lauren Fleshman, Julia Lucas, Molly Huddle
Keeping It Competitive: Jen Rhines, Julie Culley (NYAC), Jackie Areson, Amy Hastings, Lisa Uhl, Liz Maloy, Angela Bizzarri
Dark Horse Favorite: Magdalena Lewy Boulet
New York Runners: Koons (NYAC)
This is another fairly competitive race, with some big names and fast runners who will undoubtedly miss the cut. Teammates Lauren Fleshman and Julia Lucas are the favorites here, and have run the two fastest 5000m times this year--an amazing feat considering that the American record holder is the third-fastest. Huddle will make the team if she can hold off a big-time dark horse of marathon fame, Magdalena Lewy Boulet. And just look at the folks who will miss this team--it's heartbreaking: Jen Rhines, Julie Culley, Areson, Hastings, Uhl, et. al. This is the strongest field of 5000m runners the United States has ever seen.

Men’s 5000m
Best Team: Galen Rupp, Bernard Lagat, Lopez Lomong
Keeping It Competitive: Matt Tegenkamp, Andrew Bumbalough, Chris Derrick
Dark Horse Favorite: Dathan Ritzenhein
Watch out, London--this may be the best US Olympic 5000m Team assembled in the modern era. Galen Rupp (2008 Olympian) and Bernard Lagat (3-time overall Olympian, 1-time US Olympian) will battle it out for the top spot on the team, and both have the ability to compete with gold-medal hopeful Mo Farah (Rupp's Oregon training partner) and the inevitable slew of Kenya and Ethiopian runners who will run this event. At 38 years old, this may be Lagat's swan-song Olympic Games; will he end on a high note?
Lopez Lomong is a touch slower than these men, but he has a killer kick capable of rounding out an American 5000m medal sweep at the Olympic Games. The dark horse here is Dathan Ritzenhein--a disappointing fourth finish, or first-runner up for the Marathon Team, Ritz is the only guy here outside of Rupp and Lagat to have run a sub-13:00 5k. If he can muster that type of time, redemption--and a second appearance on a US Olympic Team--will be his.

Women’s 10,000m
Best Team: Shalane Flanagan, Amy Hastings, Janet Cherobon-Bawcom
Keeping It Competitive: Lisa Uhl, Alisha Williams, Deborah Maier, Meaghan Nelson
Dark Horse Favorite: Alissa McKaig
There are quite a few questions surrounding the women's 10,000m Olympic Trials. Can Shalane Flanagan compete it both the 10,000m and the marathon without sacrificing her medal hopes? She was a bronze medalist in this event at the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Amy Hastings is a woman on a mission after finishing a disappointing 4th in the Olympic Marathon Trials this year; she will make her first Olympic team. And rounding out the final spot on this team should be very interesting--distance specialist and Kenyan-born Janet Cherobon-Bawcom will have her hands full holding off Lisa Uhl (training partner to Olympians Shalane Flanagan and Kara Goucher). The third spot here is pretty much even odds, and add to that mix our dark horse--Alissa McKaig--who will need the race of her career to make her first Olympic career.

Men’s 10,000m
Best Team: Galen Rupp, Bobby Curtis, Dathan Ritzenhein
Keeping It Competitive: Tim Nelson, Matt Tegenkamp, Brent Vaughn, Ben True, Joseph Chirlee (US Army), Ryan Vail, Scotty Bauhs, Aaron Braun
Dark Horse Favorite: Chris Derrick
Unless disaster strikes, Galen Rupp's times this year have been so far ahead of his American field of competition that this result is almost a lock. Rupp should win this event handily, but from there, it's a toss-up. Bobby Curtis has run the second-fastest qualifying time this year, and Ritz needs this event to ensure he makes his second straight Olympic Team. Chris Derrick, whose heart was broken--twice--by that pesky Canadian Cam Levins, is our dark horse favorite here. However, the men's 10,000m field is comprised of several tested and savvy distance runners who are all capable of making a US Olympic Team at this distance.

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